Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman

    Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman


    在《噪音》中,Daniel Kahneman、Olivier Sibony 和 Cass R. Sunstein 展示了噪音在许多领域的不利影响,包括医学、法律、经济预测、法医学、保释金、儿童保护、战略、绩效评估和人员选择。哪里有审判,哪里就有噪音。然而,大多数时候,个人和组织都没有意识到这一点。他们忽略了噪音。通过一些简单的补救措施,人们可以减少噪音和偏见,从而做出更好的决定。

    充满原创想法,并提供相同类型的基于研究的见解,使 Thinking, Fast and Slow 和 Nudge 成为纽约时报的畅销书,Noise 解释了人类如何以及为什么在判断中如此容易受到噪音的影响 - 以及我们可以做什么关于它。

    Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants - or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

    In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

    Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times best sellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment - and what we can do about it.

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    Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman

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